FAQ

What Does a Full Product Lifecycle Look Like in DTC From Launch to Wind-Down?

DTC Operations

Key Takeaways
  • Most DTC case studies show a launch or a scale story.
  • The critical insight from the PRD-01 arc is that infrastructure outlasts any individual product.
  • Operators who plan for the full lifecycle build differently.

A full DTC product lifecycle moves through five phases: test, ramp, peak, decline, and wind-down -- typically compressed into 12--18 months for affiliate-driven products and 18--36 months for brands with owned traffic. Understanding the full arc prevents operators from over-investing at the peak and under-preparing for the decline.

The Five Phases

Most DTC case studies show a launch or a scale story. Almost none show the full arc. PRD-01, a direct-to-consumer supplement product family operated through Stealth Labz infrastructure, provides a complete lifecycle documented at the transaction level through Konnektive CRM across 14 months of active revenue.

Phase 1 -- Test (Month 1--2). First transactions are proof-of-concept. PRD-01 recorded $1 in October 2023 (test transaction) and $289 in November 2023. The test phase validates that the payment processing, fulfillment pipeline, and tracking infrastructure work before real traffic is applied. Marginal cost of testing is near zero when infrastructure is shared across a portfolio.

Phase 2 -- Ramp (Months 2--4). Revenue scales from hundreds to tens of thousands. PRD-01 moved from $289 in November to $16,910 in December to $48,174 in January 2024. This is the phase where affiliate traffic proves the offer converts at scale. The operator monitors CVR, refund rate, and CPA daily to decide whether to accelerate or pull back.

Phase 3 -- Peak (Months 4--6). The highest-volume period. PRD-01 hit $173,247 gross in February 2024, sustaining above $100K/month through April. At peak, the operator's job shifts from growth to quality control: monitoring refund rates (which spiked to 7.0% at peak volume from 6.0% average), managing chargeback ratios, and ensuring fulfillment keeps pace.

Phase 4 -- Decline (Months 6--10). Revenue drops. For PRD-01, the decline was a cliff, not a slope: $119K in April to $14K in May -- an 88% drop in a single month when primary affiliate traffic sources (AFF-01, AFF-02) rotated away. Products with owned traffic decline more gradually. According to a 2024 McKinsey analysis of DTC brand lifecycles, the median time from peak to 50% revenue decline is 4--6 months for brands dependent on paid acquisition.

Phase 5 -- Wind-Down (Months 10--14+). Residual revenue from rebills and tail-end orders. PRD-01 generated $1K--$2K/month from October to November 2024, declining to under $200/month by December. The operator's decision at this stage: maintain the product at minimal cost (rebills still flow) or formally sunset and reallocate infrastructure.

What Survives the Product

The critical insight from the PRD-01 arc is that infrastructure outlasts any individual product. The payment processing, affiliate tracking, rebill management, refund handling, and attribution system that powered PRD-01 became the foundation for every subsequent product launch. PRD-03 launched on the same infrastructure in August 2025 and generated $101K net in five months. The product died. The machine lived.

PRD-01's total net revenue across its lifecycle: $509,821. Refund rate: 6.0%. Revenue model: 92% initial, 8% rebill. The 8.7% rebill rate revealed that the subscription model needed strengthening -- a lesson applied directly to subsequent product designs.

Planning for the Arc

Operators who plan for the full lifecycle build differently. They set aside margin during peak months to fund the next product test. They diversify traffic sources before any single source exceeds 40% of volume. They treat every product launch as a data collection exercise that informs the next one. The brands that scale past $10M annualized are running three to five products at different lifecycle stages simultaneously -- some ramping, some peaking, some winding down.

Related: How Do You Test New DTC Products Cheaply Before Scaling?

References

  1. McKinsey & Company (2024). "DTC Brand Lifecycle Analysis." Median time from peak to decline for DTC brands.
  2. Keating, M.G. (2026). "Case Study: The PRJ-01 Product Story." Stealth Labz. Read case study
  3. Keating, M.G. (2026). "The Compounding Execution Method: Complete Technical Documentation." Stealth Labz. Browse papers