Contents
The Story
In February 2024, a single external affiliate (AFF-01) accounted for 96.9% of PRJ-02 monthly revenue — $330K out of $341K. Six months later, AFF-01 revenue was $0. Total monthly revenue collapsed from $341K to $820. A 99.8% decline.
This is not a story about strategically reducing affiliate dependency. This is a story about what happened when external affiliates churned — and the owned traffic infrastructure that turned out to be the safety net.
By September 2025, the business was generating $32K/month, with 94.3% coming from STL-owned traffic. The absolute numbers are smaller. The business risk is fundamentally different.
The Five Phases
Phase 1 — AFF-01 Dominance (Dec 2023–Feb 2024). Revenue scaled from $17K to $341K in three months. AFF-01 drove virtually all of it. The business was, functionally, an AFF-01 monetization channel.
Phase 2 — Traffic Rotation (Mar–Apr 2024). AFF-01 dropped from 96.9% to 5.1% in two months. AFF-02 stepped in at 81.3% of April revenue. Revenue held — but the underlying dynamic was the same: one external affiliate driving the majority.
Phase 3 — The Collapse (May–Aug 2024). Every external affiliate dried up. Revenue fell from $151K to $5.9K. This wasn't one partnership ending — it was the entire external affiliate channel collapsing.
Phase 4 — The Trough (Sep 2024–Apr 2025). Eight months below $5K/month. Nadir: March 2025, $202 total revenue. This is the period most operators don't survive.
Phase 5 — STL Emergence (May 2025 onward). STL-owned traffic began generating meaningful revenue. September peaked at $32K. Not AFF-01-level scale — but owned, not rented.
Revenue is 10× smaller. Risk profile is 10× better.
The Business Risk Math
| Scenario | Feb 2024 | Sep 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Monthly revenue | $340,742 | $33,999 |
| Largest single source | AFF-01: $330,308 (96.9%) | STL: $32,078 (94.3%) |
| If largest source disappears | Revenue drops to $10,434 | Revenue drops to $1,921 |
| % of revenue at risk | 96.9% (external, uncontrollable) | 94.3% (owned, controllable) |
| Can the operator restart the source? | No — AFF-01 is an external partner | Yes — STL infrastructure is owned |
What This Is NOT
This is not a story about a deliberate strategic shift. The data doesn't support that claim. Affiliates left. There was an 8-month trough. STL-owned traffic infrastructure was being built during and after the trough. When it came online, it filled a different role — smaller scale, but owned.
The causation is not "we replaced affiliates with owned traffic." The causation is "affiliates left, and the owned infrastructure we'd been building turned out to be the thing that kept the business alive."
Planned transitions are easy to narrate. Surviving an unplanned one proves infrastructure resilience.
Key Numbers
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Peak external dependency | 96.9% (AFF-01, Feb 2024) |
| Peak-to-trough revenue decline | 99.9% ($341K → $202) |
| Months in trough (<$5K/mo) | 8 (Sep 2024–Apr 2025) |
| STL peak monthly revenue | $32,078 (Sep 2025) |
| STL peak % of revenue | 100% (Jan 2026) |
| Total STL-attributed revenue | $77,296 |
| Total AFF-01-attributed revenue | $515,616 |
| Time from trough nadir to STL peak | 6 months (Mar → Sep 2025) |
Why This Matters
Most businesses discover their affiliate dependency the hard way — when the affiliate disappears. The PRJ-02 data shows both sides: the peak dependency ($330K/month from one source) and what happens after it's gone (8 months below $5K).
The infrastructure investment in owned traffic didn't prevent the trough. But it's what ended it. And the business that emerged — generating 90–100% of revenue from owned sources — has a fundamentally different risk profile than the one that existed in February 2024.
The revenue is smaller. The foundation is stronger.
Appendix A — Lifetime Revenue by Source
| Source | Total Revenue | % of Total | Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| AFF-01 | $515,616 | 59.2% | External affiliate |
| AFF-02 | $165,217 | 19.0% | External affiliate |
| STL | $77,296 | 8.9% | Owned traffic |
| INT | $54,757 | 6.3% | Owned traffic (internal) |
| AFF-03 | $32,521 | 3.7% | External affiliate |
| AFF-04 | $16,162 | 1.9% | External affiliate |
| Others | $9,060 | 1.0% | Various |
| Total | $870,630 | 100% |
Appendix B — STL Monthly Revenue Detail
| Month | STL Revenue | Total Revenue | STL % |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | $3,433 | $3,533 | 97.2% |
| Aug 2025 | $19,676 | $20,682 | 95.1% |
| Sep 2025 | $32,078 | $34,000 | 94.3% |
| Oct 2025 | $11,645 | $12,694 | 91.7% |
| Nov 2025 | $4,980 | $5,271 | 94.5% |
| Jan 2026 | $663 | $663 | 100% |
References
- Keating, M.G. (2026). "The Compounding Execution Method: Complete Technical Documentation." Stealth Labz CEM Papers. Browse papers